Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Bell-Shaped Curve and the Jury

On an XY grid we plot,
To see what is or not.
The errors in our measurements
Tend to cluster around the true value.
The graph of our errors rings true --
The Bell is what we got.

European astronomers in the 18th century noticed that the errors of their multiple measurements of the positions of heavenly bodies tended to cluster around the true value. A plotted line on an XY graph of the errors always took the shape of a bell.

This also tells us not to rely heavily upon the single measurement, the individual, the centralizing point. The target is always moving, the truth is a direction, the bell tolls for us. Of course, for the plot to give us its comforting shape -- for the grouping to be "smart" -- it must be autonomous, decentralized, multiply diverse but cognitively focussed.

We of course, describe a Jury.