On an XY grid we plot,
To see what is or not.
The errors in our measurements
Tend to cluster around the true value.
The graph of our errors rings true --
The Bell is what we got.
European astronomers in the 18th century noticed that the errors of their multiple measurements of the positions of heavenly bodies tended to cluster around the true value. A plotted line on an XY graph of the errors always took the shape of a bell.
This also tells us not to rely heavily upon the single measurement, the individual, the centralizing point. The target is always moving, the truth is a direction, the bell tolls for us. Of course, for the plot to give us its comforting shape -- for the grouping to be "smart" -- it must be autonomous, decentralized, multiply diverse but cognitively focussed.
We of course, describe a Jury.
FACTS:
ReplyDelete1. WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE. According to Shermer (SA 12/04 "Skeptic" 38), the audience is right 91% of the time, compared with only 65% for 'experts'.
2. THE WISDOM OF CROWDS (2004), by James Surowiecki (New Yorker columnist). "the many are smarter than the few" - Examples across the board. Google ranks Web pages by the number of links, which links are themselves weighted by their links, to the page of origin.
3. Compare, "almost everything people believe is false". And lynch mobs, wolf pack pile-ons, herd instincts. The Scot, Charles MacKay , published EXTRAORDINARY POPULAR DELUSIONS AND THE MADNESS OF CROWDS in 1841.
4. SHERMER concludes that for the group to be smart, it must be autonomous, decentralized, and cognitively diverse. IOW not like a committee. Describes Google as the largest autonomous, decentralized, and diverse crowd in history.
WE SHOULD THINK ABOUT UTILIZING THE WEB IN STEAD OF IMPOSING THE TREMENDOUS BURDEN OF TIME AND PATIENCE WHICH WE DO UPON JURORS...